For Admissions Contact @ 9133527733

Menu

Leave a Comment / By /

News at a Glance

Recent Inflation Trends and Policy Implications for the RBI

Source: The Hindu

UPSC Relevance: GS 3 Economy

Context: Inflation Trends

Why in News?

India’s retail inflation fell to a 99-month low of 1.54% in September 2025, raising concerns about demand deficiency, monetary policy calibration, and RBI forecast accuracy.

Introduction

  • India’s retail inflation data for September 2025, recorded at a 99-month low of 1.54%, marks a significant turning point in the country’s macroeconomic landscape.
  • This figure, well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, and even close to the lower bound of its tolerance band (2%-6%), signals a structural moderation in price pressures.
  • While low inflation typically benefits consumers, the current situation poses complex policy challenges—particularly regarding demand deficiency, growth revival, and monetary policy calibration.

Context: The Current Inflation Scenario

  • The average retail inflation during the first half of FY 2025-26 stood at 2.2%, indicating a steady disinflation trend except for August.
  • Inflation in key consumption categories such as clothing and footwear has dropped to 2.3%, reflecting weakening consumer demand.
  • The overall trend suggests that supply is outstripping demand, a situation that can suppress economic growth and private investment.
  • Thus, while the RBI successfully tamed inflation after years of monetary tightening, the pendulum has arguably swung too far toward disinflation or near-deflation, creating new risks for the economy.

Implications for Monetary Policy

  • The RBI’s stated objective under its Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) framework is to maintain inflation at 4% ± 2%.
  • When inflation was persistently high, the central bank emphasized the need to restore it to the 4% midpoint. Now that inflation is well below the target, the same principle of symmetry requires the RBI to stimulate inflation upward—through monetary accommodation.

Inflation

  • Inflation is the sustained rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. It reflects the decline in the purchasing power of money, meaning that each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services than before.

Types of Inflation

  • Demand-Pull Inflation:
  • Occurs when aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply.
  • “Too much money chasing too few goods.”
  • Example: High consumer spending during festive seasons driving prices up.
  • Cost-Push Inflation:
  • Caused by an increase in the cost of production (wages, raw materials).
  • Example: Rising crude oil prices increase transportation costs, pushing up prices of goods.
  • Structural Inflation:
  • Due to structural bottlenecks in the economy, such as shortages of key commodities or inefficient supply chains.
  • Hyperinflation:
  • Extremely rapid and uncontrolled price rise, usually exceeding 50% per month.
  • Example: Zimbabwe (2008) or Weimar Germany (1923).
  • Deflation:
  • Opposite of inflation; a sustained decline in the general price level, often associated with economic slowdown.

Need for Rate Cuts:

  • With inflation subdued, the RBI has ample room to reduce policy rates in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
  • Lower interest rates can stimulate credit growth, investment, and consumption, thereby rebalancing aggregate demand.
  • Shifting from Conservatism to Accommodation:
  • The RBI’s cautious stance, shaped by past inflationary pressures, now risks constraining growth.
  • Given that inflation expectations are well-anchored, it is preferable to err on the side of stimulus rather than restraint.
  • Coordination with Fiscal Policy:
  • The government has already pursued fiscal measures—such as income tax rebates and GST rate cuts—to revive demand.
  • However, these have had limited success, as households used additional income to increase savings or reduce debt rather than consume more.
  • Hence, monetary easing must complement fiscal actions to sustain domestic demand.

Demand Deficiency and the Role of the Private Sector

  • A prolonged period of low inflation often reflects insufficient demand relative to supply. The Indian economy, unlike China, lacks a strong export base to absorb domestic production. Therefore, the onus of recovery lies on domestic consumption and private investment.
  • The government’s attempts to stimulate demand through tax incentives provided short-term relief but failed to generate a structural boost in consumption.
  • Private sector wages have stagnated, limiting purchasing power and aggregate demand.
  • Although private investment announcements have increased in 2025, their materialization into actual projects is essential for translating intent into growth.
  • For sustainable demand recovery, a rise in real wages, supported by productivity and employment growth, is crucial. This can help create a virtuous cycle of income, consumption, and investment.

(Image Source: Money Control)

The Problem of Forecast Inaccuracy

  • A key issue highlighted by the recent inflation data is the RBI’s forecasting error.
  • In April 2025, the RBI projected annual inflation at 4%, consistent with its target.
  • However, by September 2025, it revised the forecast sharply downward to 2.6%, a significant correction within just six months.
  • Such a large revision raises concerns about the robustness of the RBI’s econometric models and its ability to anticipate shifts in inflation dynamics.

Why Accurate Forecasting Matters:

  • Inflation forecasting guides monetary policy decisions, interest rate settings, and liquidity management.
  • Errors in prediction can lead to policy lags, miscalibrated interventions, and reduced credibility of the central bank.
  • Inaccurate forecasts also distort market expectations and business planning.
  • Hence, strengthening the analytical and modeling capacity of the RBI, perhaps through enhanced use of AI-driven forecasting models, real-time data analytics, and sectoral price behavior analysis, is an urgent institutional need.

Lessons and the Way Forward

The current episode of ultra-low inflation offers several lessons for policymakers:

  • Balanced Inflation Targeting: The RBI must treat both high and low deviations from the 4% target with equal concern, maintaining symmetry in its approach.
  • Monetary-Fiscal Coordination: The government and RBI should work together to ensure policy complementarity—fiscal measures to boost demand, alongside accommodative monetary policy.
  • Focus on Real Economy Linkages: Inflation management should not be seen in isolation from employment, wages, and productivity. Structural reforms to boost income and consumption are essential.
  • Improving Forecast Accuracy: Upgrading forecasting tools and improving transparency in assumptions will strengthen policy credibility.
  • Encouraging Private Investment: Timely execution of private investment projects will create jobs, raise wages, and restore the consumption momentum necessary for sustained growth.

Conclusion

  • Inflation control is not just about keeping prices low, but about maintaining the right balance between price stability and growth dynamism. The challenge for the RBI now lies not in taming inflation, but in reviving demand without losing credibility.

CARE MCQ

Q1.  Consider the following statements regarding the recent retail inflation trend in India:

  • Retail inflation was below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%.
  • Low inflation indicates supply exceeding demand, potentially affecting economic growth.
  • The RBI’s inflation forecast revisions over six months highlight challenges in its estimation process.
  • Fiscal measures such as income-tax rebates and GST cuts have fully restored domestic demand.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A. 1 and 2 only

B. 1, 2 and 3 only

C. 2, 3 and 4 only

D. 1, 2, 3 and 4

Answer 1- B

Explanation

  • Statement 1 is correct: Retail inflation in September 2025 was 1.54%, which is below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%, as reported in the official data. This is a factual observation.
  • Statement 2 is correct: Persistently low inflation reflects a situation where supply outstrips demand, which can suppress consumption and slow economic growth. This aligns with standard macroeconomic principles.
  • Statement 3 is correct: The RBI initially forecasted 4% inflation in April 2025, but revised it to 2.6% by September 2025. Such a sharp revision indicates challenges in the accuracy of its estimation and forecasting models.
  • Statement 4 is incorrect: Fiscal measures such as income-tax rebates and GST cuts only had temporary effects on demand. Households largely used additional disposable income to save or reduce debt, so domestic demand has not been fully restored.
  • Therefore, option B is the correct answer.

UPSC PYQ

Q.  Consider the following statements: (2020) 

  • The weightage of food in Consumer Price Index (CPI) is higher than that in Wholesale Price Index (WPI). 
  • The WPI does not capture changes in the prices of services, which CPI does. 
  • Reserve Bank of India has now adopted WPI as its key measure of inflation and to decide on changing the key policy rates. 

Which of the statements given above is/are correct? 

(a) 1 and 2 only  

(b) 2 only  

(c) 3 only 

(d) 1, 2 and 3 

Ans: (a) 

Maldives Achieves World’s First Triple Elimination of Mother-to-Child Transmission

Source: The Hindu

UPSC Relevance: GS2 Pubic Health

Context: Triple Elimination

Why in News?

The Maldives became the first country in the world to achieve WHO validation for triple elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B.

Introduction

  • In a historic milestone for global public health, the World Health Organization (WHO) has validated the Maldives as the first country in the world to achieve the “triple elimination” of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B.
  • This recognition marks a major victory for maternal and child health, demonstrating that even small island nations can achieve ambitious global health targets through sustained political commitment, universal healthcare, and strong public health infrastructure.

Understanding the Concept of ‘Triple Elimination’

  • The elimination of mother-to-child transmission (EMTCT) refers to reducing the rate of transmission of infections from mother to infant to such a low level that it is no longer a public health concern.
  • The WHO Triple Elimination Initiative aims to integrate prevention of transmission of HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B into reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health services.
  • Mother-to-child transmission is one of the key routes of infection for these diseases:
  • HIV: Can be transmitted during pregnancy, delivery, or breastfeeding.
  • Syphilis: Leads to congenital infections, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths.
  • Hepatitis B: Can cause lifelong chronic infection and liver disease if transmitted at birth.

(Image Source: The Hindu)

Maldives’ Path to Triple Elimination

  • The Maldives’ journey toward this global recognition was built on a comprehensive, integrated, and equitable public health approach. The following were the key factors behind its success:
  • Universal Antenatal Coverage and Testing Over 95% of pregnant women in the Maldives receive antenatal care, with nearly universal testing for HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B. This enables early detection and immediate treatment or preventive measures.
  • High Immunisation Rates More than 95% of newborns receive a timely birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine, followed by full vaccination coverage, which effectively prevents vertical transmission.
  • Effective Treatment and Prevention Protocols Pregnant women testing positive for HIV or syphilis are promptly treated, ensuring that no infants are born with these infections. In 2022 and 2023, the Maldives reported zero cases of infants born with HIV or syphilis, while a national survey in 2023 confirmed zero hepatitis B infection among school-entry children.
  • Universal Health Coverage (UHC) The Maldives provides free antenatal care, diagnostics, and vaccinations to all residents, including migrants. Health expenditure accounts for over 10% of GDP, reflecting the government’s strong commitment to maternal and child health.
  • Robust Health Infrastructure and Surveillance Integrated data systems, laboratory networks, and periodic national surveys have ensured reliable monitoring, enabling evidence-based policymaking and validation by WHO.

Global and Regional Significance

  • The Maldives’ achievement is unprecedented — no other country has achieved triple elimination to date. It serves as a model for small island developing states and low- and middle-income countries, proving that size and geography are not barriers when there is strong political will and community-level healthcare coverage.
  • In the WHO South-East Asia Region, over 23,000 pregnant women had syphilis and 25,000 HIV-positive pregnant women required treatment to prevent transmission in 2024, while 42 million people continue to live with hepatitis B. The Maldives’ success provides hope and direction for other countries to accelerate their EMTCT efforts.

Challenges and Sustainability Concerns

  • While the achievement is commendable, maintaining elimination status poses long-term challenges:
  • Sustained surveillance and data quality are crucial to detect and prevent any resurgence.
  • Population mobility and migration can reintroduce infections, requiring continuous inclusion of migrant populations in health programs.
  • Financial sustainability and training of health workers must be maintained to ensure uninterrupted service delivery.

Lessons for India and Other Developing Nations

  • India, with its vast population and diverse healthcare infrastructure, can draw key lessons from the Maldives’ experience:
  • Integration of Services: Triple screening for HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B should be standard in all antenatal care visits.
  • Timely Hepatitis B Birth Dose: Ensuring vaccination within 24 hours of birth, even in rural and home delivery settings.
  • Universal Health Access: Inclusion of vulnerable groups such as migrants, informal workers, and tribal communities in free maternal healthcare schemes.
  • Surveillance and Monitoring: Strengthening health information systems for tracking infections and vaccination coverage.
  • Sustained Political Commitment: Continuous government investment in maternal and child health programs under National Health Mission (NHM) and Ayushman Bharat.

Way Forward

The Maldives’ achievement demonstrates that elimination of vertical transmission is not only a medical goal but also a reflection of social equity, governance, and resilience. Other countries must:

  • Integrate EMTCT efforts with national Universal Health Coverage (UHC) strategies.
  • Ensure multisectoral coordination between immunisation, HIV control, and maternal health programs.
  • Build community trust and awareness to sustain high testing and vaccination rates.

Conclusion

  • The Maldives’ validation by WHO for triple elimination marks a global public health breakthrough. It shows that through universal healthcare, robust surveillance, and political commitment, even small nations can lead the world in achieving complex health goals.

CARE MCQ

Q2.   The Maldives was recently recognized by World Health Organisation (WHO) for achieving “triple elimination” of mother-to-child transmission of:

A. HIV, Tuberculosis, and Hepatitis B

B. HIV, Syphilis, and Hepatitis B

C. Syphilis, Malaria, and Hepatitis B

D. HIV, Syphilis, and Tuberculosis

Answer 2- B

Explanation

  • Statement 1 is Correct: The Maldives has achieved elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, syphilis, and hepatitis B, as validated by the WHO in 2025. This is the key definition of “triple elimination” in the public health context.
  • Statement 2 is Correct: The achievement is significant because it is the first country in the world to receive WHO validation for eliminating transmission of all three infections simultaneously, demonstrating strong antenatal care, immunisation, and universal health coverage.
  • Statement 3 is Correct: The program’s success involved comprehensive interventions including universal antenatal testing, timely hepatitis B birth-dose, and free healthcare for all residents, including migrants, ensuring no infants were born with these infections in recent years.
  • Therefore, option B is the correct answer.

UPSC PYQ

Q. Which one of the following statements is not correct? (2019)

(a) Hepatitis B virus is transmitted much like HIV.

(b) Hepatitis B unlike Hepatitis C, does not have a vaccine.

(c) Globally, the number of people infected with Hepatitis B and C viruses arc several times more than those infected with HIV.

(d) Some of those infected with Hepatitis B and C viruses do not show the symptoms for many years

Ans: (b)

Powering up the Australia–India Clean Energy Partnership

Source: Indian Express

UPSC Relevance: GS2 International Relations

Context: Australia–India Clean Energy

Why in News?

Australia and India are strengthening their Renewable Energy Partnership (REP) to develop resilient clean energy supply chains.

Introduction

  • At a time when both India and Australia are pursuing ambitious clean energy goals, Australian Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s visit to New Delhi (October 2025) marks an important step in advancing the India–Australia Renewable Energy Partnership (REP) — a framework launched by Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Anthony Albanese in 2024 to strengthen cooperation in the renewable energy sector.
  • The visit takes place amid growing vulnerabilities in global supply chains, dominated by China’s control over critical minerals and renewable components, prompting both nations to seek diversified, resilient, and regionally anchored clean energy ecosystems.

The Clean Energy Imperative in the Indo-Pacific

  • Climate Vulnerability of the Region
  • The Indo-Pacific is among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world.
  • Between 1970 and 2022, it witnessed nearly 10 climate-related disasters every month, resulting in large-scale fatalities and economic losses.
  • Projections indicate that by 2050, around 89 million people could be displaced, with 80% of the population directly affected by climate impacts.
  • India’s Climate Commitments
  • India has pledged to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030, with 280 GW expected from solar energy.
  • As of July 2025, India achieved a key milestone — 50% of its installed capacity now comes from non-fossil sources, five years ahead of schedule.
  • These achievements align with India’s Panchamrit goals announced at COP26, reinforcing its leadership in renewable energy adoption.
  • Australia’s Commitments
  • Australia has set a 62–70% reduction in emissions (below 2005 levels) by 2035, aligning with its net-zero target for 2050.
  • Its government describes these goals as “ambitious, achievable, and investable,” emphasizing private sector participation and green investments.

The Central Challenge — Dependence on China

  • Dominance of China in Clean Energy Supply Chains
  • China refines over 90% of the world’s rare earth elements and produces nearly 80% of global solar modules.
  • This concentration poses systemic risks to global energy transitions, exposing countries to supply shocks and geopolitical leverage.
  • India’s Dependence
  • India faces acute vulnerability in electric mobility and wind energy, heavily relying on imports of rare earth magnets, lithium, and battery materials from China.
  • Any disruption affects India’s EV manufacturing and renewable projects — as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, when supply shortages slowed down domestic EV production.
  • Australia’s Vulnerability
  • While Australia is a leading exporter of lithium, cobalt, and rare earths, it lacks refining and downstream manufacturing capacity.
  • This makes Australia a raw-material supplier without full control over the value chain, exposing it to market volatility and missed industrial opportunities.

The Renewable Energy Partnership (REP): Framework for Cooperation

  • The India–Australia Renewable Energy Partnership, launched in 2024, provides a structured roadmap for collaboration.

    It outlines cooperation across eight key areas:

  • Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology development and manufacturing.
  • Green hydrogen production and infrastructure.
  • Energy storage solutions, including advanced battery technologies.
  • Solar supply chain diversification to reduce dependence on single-country sources.
  • Circular economy practices in renewable materials recycling.
  • Two-way investment promotion for clean energy projects.
  • Capacity building and skill development, leveraging India’s workforce.
  • Other shared priorities, including policy harmonization and research exchanges.
  • The partnership also includes a Track 1.5 Dialogue, which brings together policymakers, industry, and research institutions to facilitate joint projects, R&D collaboration, and investment planning.

(Image Source: The Hindu)

Complementary Strengths: India and Australia

Australia’s Strengths

  • Abundant critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
  • Stable regulatory environment and transparent governance systems.
  • Experience in green technology innovation and climate financing.
  • The Net Zero Jobs Plan aims to build a skilled green workforce — aligning with India’s expertise in training and human resource development.

India’s Strengths

  • Large and youthful workforce (nearly two-thirds under 35 years).
  • Government schemes like Skill India and PLI (Production Linked Incentives) for solar, batteries, and green hydrogen.
  • Rapidly growing domestic market for renewable technologies.
  • Manufacturing capacity and cost competitiveness, allowing scaling of affordable clean technologies.

Mutual Benefits

  • Australia’s resources + India’s workforce = complementary partnership.
  • Co-investment in refining, processing, and technology transfer will enable both nations to control larger parts of the clean energy value chain.
  • Joint R&D in hydrogen, storage, and solar innovation could position the partnership as a regional model for clean energy cooperation.

Geostrategic and Economic Implications

  • Reducing Dependence on China
  • The partnership supports supply chain diversification, enhancing strategic autonomy for both countries.
  • It aligns with broader regional efforts like the Quad’s clean energy initiative, emphasizing resilient technology ecosystems in the Indo-Pacific.

Regional Leadership and Climate Diplomacy

  • India and Australia can demonstrate how two democracies in the Indo-Pacific can jointly address climate threats through sustainable cooperation.
  • The partnership could become a template for South-South collaboration, combining resource-rich and demography-rich nations for mutual gains.
  • Investment and Employment Opportunities
  • Cross-investment in green hydrogen hubs, solar parks, and battery plants can generate thousands of jobs in both nations.
  • India could emerge as a hub for clean energy manufacturing, while Australia gains from value addition to its mineral exports.

Way Forward

To make the Renewable Energy Partnership (REP) impactful, both countries should:

  • Establish joint venture projects in solar module manufacturing, hydrogen production, and rare-earth refining.
  • Create an Indo-Pacific Clean Energy Fund to mobilize public and private investment.
  • Enhance technology sharing agreements, particularly in battery recycling, grid integration, and carbon capture.
  • Expand academic and technical exchanges to build a skilled workforce through India–Australia Green Skills Initiatives.
  • Institutionalize Track 1.5 dialogues to ensure regular review and implementation of REP goals.

Conclusion

  • Australia and India stand at a strategic juncture in their energy transition journeys. While Australia offers the minerals and capital, India contributes the scale, labor, and manufacturing expertise. Together, they can build a diversified, resilient, and sustainable clean energy ecosystem for the Indo-Pacific region.

CARE MCQ

Q3.  Consider the following statements regarding the India–Australia Renewable Energy Partnership (REP):

  • REP focuses on eight areas including solar PV, green hydrogen, energy storage, and circular economy in renewables.
  • REP aims to reduce dependence on a single country for critical minerals and renewable energy components.
  • Australia contributes primarily through its large-scale renewable energy manufacturing base.
  • India contributes through its young workforce and market demand for renewable technologies.

Which of the above statements are correct?

A. 1, 2, and 4 only

B. 1 and 3 only

C. 2 and 3 only

D. All of the above

Answer 3: A

Explanation

  • Statement 1 is Correct: The REP lays out cooperation across eight key areas, including solar photovoltaic technology, green hydrogen, energy storage, solar supply chains, circular economy in renewables, two-way investment, capacity building, and other shared priorities.
  • Statement 2 is Correct: One of the central objectives of REP is to reduce overdependence on a single country (China) for critical minerals and renewable energy components, ensuring resilient and diversified supply chains.
  • Statement 3 is Incorrect: Australia does not have large-scale renewable energy manufacturing. Its contribution lies mainly in providing critical minerals (lithium, rare earths) and co-investing in refining and processing infrastructure.
  • Statement 4 is Correct: India contributes through its young and skilled workforce, large-scale renewable energy market, and production-linked incentives, making it a key partner for downstream manufacturing and installation.
  • Therefore, option A is the correct answer.

UPSC PYQ

Q. Consider the following countries: (2018) 

  • Australia 
  • Canada 
  • China 
  • India 
  • Japan 
  • USA 

Which of the above are among the ‘free-trade partners’ of ASEAN? 

(a) 1, 2, 4 and 5 

(b) 3, 4, 5 and 6 

(c) 1, 3, 4 and 5 

(d) 2, 3, 4 and 6 

Ans: (c)

Madagascar Military Coup After Presidential Impeachment

Source: The Hindu

UPSC Relevance: GS2 International Relations

Context: Madagascar Military Coup

Why in News?

Recently, Madagascar’s elite military unit CAPSAT seized power following the impeachment of President Andry Rajoelina amid nationwide protests over governance failures and service outages.

Background

  • Madagascar plunged into political turmoil after an elite military unit, CAPSAT, seized power following the impeachment of President Andry Rajoelina by the National Assembly.
  • The crisis marks a significant moment in the island nation’s fragile democracy, combining mass youth-led protests, constitutional disputes, and military intervention.

Constitutional and Legal Dimensions

  • The situation presents a duality of claims to authority:
  • Rajoelina’s Decree vs. Parliament’s Vote: The president attempted to dissolve the legislature to prevent his impeachment, while lawmakers proceeded regardless, invoking their constitutional right to impeach.
  • Role of the High Constitutional Court: Under Madagascar’s Constitution, the High Constitutional Court must validate an impeachment vote for it to take effect. However, with the military takeover, constitutional procedures have been effectively suspended.
  • Nature of the Takeover: CAPSAT’s intervention constitutes a military coup, disrupting the constitutional order and replacing an elected government with an unelected military committee — an act widely condemned under international democratic norms.

Causes of the Political Crisis

Immediate Triggers

  • Nationwide power and water shortages causing public hardship.
  • Growing youth unemployment and inflation.
  • Allegations of corruption and authoritarian governance.
  • Use of force against protesters, leading to public outrage.

Deep Structural Causes

  • Weak institutional capacity and lack of checks and balances.
  • Political factionalism within the armed forces.
  • History of coups (notably in 2009, when Rajoelina himself came to power through a similar military-backed transition).
  • Widespread poverty and governance deficits exacerbating social unrest.

Role of the Military and CAPSAT

  • The CAPSAT unit, which played a central role in the 2009 coup, again emerged as a decisive actor.
  • Its defection shifted the balance of power in Antananarivo, leaving Rajoelina without reliable security backing.
  • The unit justified its takeover as acting on behalf of the people, promising a temporary transitional council and eventual return to civilian rule. However, historical precedents suggest prolonged military control often follows such promises.

(Image Source; The Hindu)

Domestic Implications

  • Political Vacuum: Power now lies with an ad-hoc military committee lacking constitutional legitimacy.
  • Governance Breakdown: Ministries, courts, and public services are operating irregularly amid the power transition.
  • Economic Fallout: Investor confidence has plummeted, aid flows are threatened, and the local currency has weakened.
  • Civil Unrest: Demonstrations continue, raising fears of violence and humanitarian instability.

International and Regional Reactions

  • African Union (AU): Likely to suspend Madagascar’s membership, as it did during previous coups, until constitutional order is restored.
  • United Nations and Western Partners: Expected to condemn the coup, freeze non-humanitarian aid, and urge dialogue and elections.
  • Regional Neighbours: Members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) may seek to mediate, as they did during earlier Malagasy crises.

Possible Scenarios Ahead

  • Managed Transition: The military establishes a short-term transitional authority with a clear election timetable — the most desirable but least certain outcome.
  • Prolonged Military Rule: The committee consolidates control, delaying a return to democracy and suppressing dissent.
  • Violent Power Struggle: Rival factions within the security forces clash, leading to instability or potential civil conflict.

Policy Implications and Way Forward

  • For Madagascar:
  • Immediate restoration of law and order.
  • Judicial resolution of the impeachment dispute through the High Constitutional Court.
  • Guarantee of fundamental rights and media freedom.
  • Formulation of a credible roadmap to elections.
  • For International Community:
  • Pressure for a civilian-led transition through AU and SADC mediation.
  • Targeted sanctions against coup leaders while maintaining humanitarian aid.
  • Support for institutional reforms and capacity-building to prevent future crises.

CARE MCQ

Q4.  With reference to the recent political crisis in Madagascar, consider the following statements:

  • The elite military unit CAPSAT seized power following the impeachment of President Andry Rajoelina by the National Assembly.
  • Under Madagascar’s Constitution, an impeachment becomes effective only after validation by the High Constitutional Court.
  • The African Union (AU) generally suspends member states following military coups until constitutional order is restored.
  • The High Constitutional Court officially endorsed the military’s intervention, recognizing CAPSAT’s transitional authority.

Which of the statements given above is incorrect?

A) 1 only

B) 2 only

C) 3 only

D) 4 only

Answer 4- D

Explanation

  • Statement 1 – Correct: The crisis began after CAPSAT, Madagascar’s elite army unit, seized control following President Rajoelina’s impeachment.
  • Statement 2 – Correct: The Constitution requires the High Constitutional Court’s validation for an impeachment to take effect.
  • Statement 3 – Correct: The African Union follows a consistent policy of suspending states after unconstitutional changes in government.
  • Statement 4 – Incorrect: The High Constitutional Court did not endorse the military’s takeover; its functioning was suspended, rendering the coup unconstitutional.

UPSC PYQ

Q. The term “two-state solution” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (2018)

(a) China  

(b) Israel  

(c) Iraq  

(d) Yemen  

Ans: (b)  

The Need to Address Caste-Based Atrocities

Source: The Hindu

UPSC Relevance: GS2 Social Justice

Context: Caste-Based Atrocities

Why in News?

Despite constitutional safeguards, caste-based atrocities against Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) persist in India, highlighting gaps in law enforcement, social reform, and political will.

Introduction

  • Despite over seven decades of constitutional democracy, caste continues to remain a major fault line in Indian society. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) 2023 report revealed alarming statistics:
  • 57,789 cases of atrocities were registered against Scheduled Castes (SCs) — a 0.4% rise from 2022.
  • 12,960 cases of atrocities were registered against Scheduled Tribes (STs) — a 28.8% increase from 2022.
  • These figures expose the persistence of caste-based violence and exclusion — from physical assaults in rural areas to subtle but systemic discrimination in urban spaces such as housing, employment, and education.

(Image Source: The Hindu)

Caste Hierarchies: A Persistent Social Reality

  • Despite India’s constitutional vision of equality (Articles 14–17), caste hierarchies continue to shape social relations. Reformers such as Mahatma Phule, B.R. Ambedkar, Periyar, and Mahatma Gandhi led movements to dismantle Brahmanical dominance.
  • The Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, 1989 (PoA Act) was a landmark legislative safeguard designed to deter caste violence.
  • However, the persistence of acts such as public humiliation, social boycott, or physical violence against Dalits and Adivasis reflects that legal reform has not translated into moral reform. The social belief in caste-based superiority remains internalised, and violence often serves as a means to reinforce social hierarchies.
  • Sociologically, this aligns with Louis Dumont’s notion of “hierarchy and purity-pollution” — where caste is not merely an occupational division but a moral order that legitimises inequality.

State Response and Political Limitations

  • While Dalits and Adivasis are occasionally included in cultural or religious events, these acts often lack substantive policy backing.
  • The Hindutva discourse, the author argues, tends to portray demands for caste justice as divisive or “Hinduphobic.” This delegitimises the struggles of marginalised communities and limits the space for their political articulation.
  • Furthermore, implementation gaps in social justice policies, especially in reservation benefits, reflect a lack of political will. Dominant castes continue to occupy key administrative, academic, and economic positions, perpetuating structural inequality.

Erosion of Anti-Caste Movements and Civil Society Response

  • Historically, movements such as the Dalit Panthers (1970s) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) redefined the discourse on caste, demanding dignity, power, and representation for Bahujans (SCs, STs, and OBCs). They represented a counter-hegemonic force to upper-caste dominance in politics and culture.
  • Today, however, such movements are fragmented.
  • Dalit-Bahujan cultural assertions — through literature, cinema, and art — are marginalised or censored (e.g., the controversy surrounding the film Phule).
  • Civil society, media, and academia show declining engagement with caste issues, shifting focus to broader populist or nationalist themes.
  • This decline of organised anti-caste resistance has weakened collective bargaining for equality and allowed the persistence of everyday discrimination.

Institutional and Legal Shortcomings

  • The existence of progressive laws like the PoA Act, 1989 is undermined by weak enforcement.
  • According to a 2023 study by the National Campaign on Dalit Human Rights, over 60% of cases under the Act remain pending in courts.
  • Conviction rates are low, and victims often face threats, social ostracism, or lack of legal aid.
  • Police bias and delayed investigations further dilute justice delivery.
  • This points to what sociologist Gunnar Myrdal termed the “soft state syndrome” — where social norms overpower formal institutions, making rule of law ineffective against entrenched power structures.

The Way Forward: A Multi-Pronged Approach

  • To address caste-based atrocities effectively, a multi-layered strategy is essential — combining legal, political, educational, and cultural interventions.

1. Strengthening Law Enforcement

  • Ensure speedy investigation and special courts for atrocity cases.
  • Mandate police sensitisation and community monitoring mechanisms.
  • Introduce victim compensation and rehabilitation schemes with transparency.

2. Political and Educational Reforms

  • Launch a national campaign promoting inter-caste fraternity, drawing on the spirit of Article 51A(e) (the duty to renounce practices derogatory to women or any section of society).
  • Integrate anti-caste education into school curricula and teacher training programmes.
  • Encourage political parties to ensure diverse representation in leadership.

3. Revitalising Civil Society and Media

  • Religious, cultural, and academic institutions must foster inter-community dialogue and highlight caste injustices.
  • Media and cinema should be leveraged to normalize narratives of equality, not stereotypes.
  • Strengthen Dalit-Bahujan cultural platforms and protect artistic freedom.

4. Effective Affirmative Action

  • Implement reservation policies rigorously in education, employment, and promotions.
  • Ensure data transparency and periodic audits of reservation compliance.
  • Focus on economic empowerment through targeted schemes for entrepreneurship and land redistribution.

5. Reinvigorating Social Movements

  • Rebuilding coalitions among SC, ST, OBC, and minority groups can renew the Bahujan solidarity of the past.
  • Encourage grassroots leadership and collective mobilisation around dignity, equality, and justice.

Conclusion

  • India’s constitutional democracy rests on the ideals of justice, liberty, equality, and fraternity. Yet, the continued prevalence of caste atrocities challenges this moral foundation.
  • The struggle against caste cannot be left to legislation alone; it demands ethical, cultural, and political transformation.

CARE MCQ

Q5.  Consider the following statements regarding caste-based atrocities in India:

  • The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) 2023 report showed a significant increase in cases registered against Scheduled Tribes compared to the previous year.
  • The Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, 1989, has completely eliminated caste-based discrimination and violence.
  • Low conviction rates and delayed investigations undermine the effectiveness of legal safeguards against caste-based atrocities.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A. 1 and 3 only

B. 2 and 3 only

C. 1 and 2 only

D. 1, 2, and 3

Answer 5- A

Explanation

  • Statement 1 is correct: The NCRB 2023 report recorded 12,960 cases of atrocities against Scheduled Tribes, marking a 28.8% increase over 2022. This indicates a significant rise in reported crimes and highlights ongoing vulnerability.
  • Statement 2 is incorrect: The PoA Act, 1989, while providing legal safeguards for SCs and STs, has not completely eliminated caste-based discrimination or violence. Persistent social hierarchies, systemic bias in enforcement, and cultural prejudices continue to facilitate atrocities.
  • Statement 3 is correct: Low conviction rates and delayed investigations remain key challenges. Over 60% of cases under the Atrocities Act are pending in courts, reducing the law’s deterrent effect and leaving victims without timely justice.
  • Therefore, option A is the correct answer.

UPSC PYQ

Q.  With reference to the history of ancient India, which of the following statements is/are correct? (2021)

1. Mitakshara was the civil law for upper castes and Dayabhaga was the civil law for lower castes.

2. In the Mitakshara system, the sons can claim right to the property during the lifetime of the father, whereas in the Dayabhaga system, it is only after the death of the father that the sons can claim right to the property.

3. The Mitakshara system deals with the matters related to the property held by male members only of a family, whereas the Dayabhaga system deals with the matters related to the property held by both male and female members of a family.

Select the correct answer using the code given below:

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 2 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 3 only

Ans: (b)

DNA-based census of wild elephants in India

Source: The Hindu

UPSC Relevance: GS 3 Environment and Ecology

Context: DNA-based elephant census (2025)

Why in News?

India’s first DNA-based elephant census (2025) shows an 18% population decline, setting a new scientific baseline for conservation.

Introduction

  • India’s first-ever DNA-based census of wild elephants, conducted under the All-India Synchronous Elephant Estimation (SAIEE) 2025, has revealed a sharp 18% decline in the country’s elephant population since 2017.
  • The new scientific exercise marks a significant shift from traditional counting methods to genetic identification, providing a more accurate and evidence-based understanding of elephant numbers and distribution.

Key Findings

  • Estimated Population (2025): 22,446 elephants
  • 2017 Estimate: 27,312 elephants
  • Decline: ~18%
  • Range Estimate (Confidence Interval): 18,255 – 26,645
  • Survey Period: Began in 2021; report released in October 2025

Regional Distribution

  • The study provides a detailed regional picture of elephant populations across India’s four major landscapes:

Region

Estimated Elephants (2025)

Key States

Western Ghats

11,934

Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu

North Eastern Hills & Brahmaputra Floodplains

6,559

Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura

Shivalik Hills & Gangetic Plains

2,062

Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh

Central India & Eastern Ghats

1,891

Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra

  • State-wise Highlights:
  • Karnataka: 6,013 (largest population)
  • Assam: 4,159
  • Tamil Nadu: 3,136
  • Kerala: 2,785
  • Uttarakhand: 1,792
  • Odisha: 912
  • Madhya Pradesh: 97; Maharashtra: 63 (tiny, fragmented herds)

Methodology: A Scientific Breakthrough

  • The 2025 exercise represents a methodological leap from earlier visual counts to DNA fingerprinting, integrating technology and field science.
  • Three-Phase Process
  • Field Surveys (Ground-Based):
  • Conducted using the M-Stripes app for systematic data recording.
  • Covered 6.7 lakh km of forest trails and recorded 3.1 lakh dung plots.
  • Habitat Mapping (Satellite Analysis):
  • Used satellite imagery to assess vegetation quality, human footprint, and habitat fragmentation.
  • Genetic Analysis (DNA Fingerprinting):
  • Collected 21,056 dung samples across landscapes.
  • Extracted DNA to identify 4,065 unique elephants.
  • Applied the mark-recapture model to estimate the total population.
  • This integrated approach minimized double-counting and ensured scientific accuracy, making it the most reliable elephant census in India’s history.

Reasons for the Decline

The 18% population drop reflects multiple ecological and anthropogenic pressures:

  • Habitat Loss and Fragmentation: Expansion of agriculture, urbanization, and infrastructure (roads, railways, dams) have disrupted elephant corridors.
  • Human-Elephant Conflict: Increasing encroachment into elephant habitats has led to crop depredation, property damage, and retaliatory killings.
  • Poaching and Illegal Capture: Though less frequent, tusk poaching and illegal trade continue to threaten isolated populations.
  • Climate and Ecological Stress: Changes in rainfall patterns and forest degradation reduce food and water availability.
  • Genetic Isolation: Fragmented herds (especially in Central India) face inbreeding risks and reduced reproductive success.

Significance of the DNA-Based Count

  • Scientific Accuracy: Moves away from subjective visual estimation to genetic evidence.
  • New Baseline for Monitoring: Establishes 2025 as a reference year for future elephant conservation efforts.
  • Policy Implications: Enables targeted interventions in states and regions showing population decline.
  • Global Benchmark: Positions India as a pioneer in using molecular ecology for large mammal population studies.

DNA and Its Role in Wildlife Monitoring

  • Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) is the hereditary material present in almost all living organisms. It carries genetic information that determines an individual’s unique traits.
  • In wildlife monitoring, DNA is a powerful tool for identifying individual animals, assessing population size, and understanding genetic health.

Advantages of DNA-Based Wildlife Monitoring

  • Scientific Precision: Reduces errors from visual counting or indirect signs.
  • Non-Invasive: Only dung or hair samples are needed; no direct contact with animals.
  • Long-Term Monitoring: Establishes a baseline for future population and genetic studies.
  • Conservation Impact: Helps in planning corridors, anti-poaching strategies, and habitat restoration.

Conservation and Policy Implications

  • India hosts over 60% of the world’s remaining Asian elephants, making conservation efforts crucial for global biodiversity. The 2025 estimation underscores the need for revamped conservation strategies under Project Elephant (1992) and allied programmes.

Key Policy Recommendations

  • Strengthen Elephant Corridors: Prioritize the protection of 101 identified elephant corridors through eco-sensitive zoning and community participation.
  • Integrate Landscape-Level Planning: Balance infrastructure development with ecological connectivity using tools like Wildlife Passage Plans.
  • Enhance Conflict Mitigation: Expand early-warning systems, crop insurance, and community-based compensation models.
  • Promote Genetic Health: Facilitate translocation and corridor connectivity to prevent inbreeding.
  • Community and Tribal Involvement: Engage local communities in conservation, especially in regions like Odisha, Assam, and Karnataka.
  • Use of Technology: Expand use of AI-based monitoring, camera traps, and satellite telemetry for real-time tracking.

Global and Ecological Context

  • The Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is listed as Endangered under the IUCN Red List and Schedule I of India’s Wildlife Protection Act, 1972.
  • India’s success or failure in conserving its elephants directly affects the species’ global survival prospects.
  • The 2025 findings echo similar challenges across South and Southeast Asia, where elephant ranges are shrinking amid rapid human expansion.

Conclusion

  • The 2025 DNA-based elephant census marks a turning point in India’s wildlife monitoring framework. While the decline in numbers is a warning signal, the adoption of cutting-edge genetic technology offers hope for a more accurate, data-driven conservation policy.

    To secure the future of India’s elephants — symbols of ecological wisdom and cultural heritage — policymakers must now translate science into sustained conservation action.

CARE MCQ

Q6. Consider the following statements regarding India’s 2025 DNA-based elephant census:

  • The 2025 census estimated India’s wild elephant population at 22,446, showing an 18% decline since 2017.
  • Karnataka hosts the largest number of elephants, and Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have tiny, fragmented herds.
  • The census used a three-phase methodology: ground surveys, satellite-based habitat mapping, and DNA-based identification.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A. 1 and 2 only

B. 1 and 3 only

C. 2 and 3 only

D. 1, 2, and 3

Answer 6-D

Explanation

  • Statement 1 is Correct: The 2025 DNA-based census estimated India’s wild elephant population at 22,446, reflecting an 18% decline from the 2017 figure of 27,312.
  • Statement 2 is Correct: Karnataka hosts the largest population, while Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have small, fragmented herds.
  • Statement 3 is Correct: The census employed a three-phase methodology: (i) ground surveys using M-Stripes, (ii) satellite-based habitat mapping, and (iii) DNA fingerprinting from dung samples.
  • Therefore, option D is the correct answer.

UPSC PYQ

Q. With reference to Indian elephants, consider the following statements: (2020)

  • The leader of an elephant group is a female. 
  • The maximum gestation period can be 22 months. 
  • An elephant can normally go on calving till the age of 40 years only. 
  • Among the States in India, the highest elephant population is in Kerala. 

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 and 2 only 

(b) 2 and 4 only 

(c) 3 only 

(d) 1, 3 and 4 only 

Ans: (a)

 
UPSC CARE Current Mains Demo
UPSC CARE 16th October 2025 Current Affairs
TGPSC CARE 14th October 2025 Current Affairs
Scroll to Top