Why in News?

• India faces a growing trust deficit and diminishing geopolitical relevance as it struggles to adapt its foreign policy to a fragmented and friendless global order..

Introduction

• In the 21st century’s rapidly shifting geopolitical environment, India finds itself navigating an increasingly complex and fragmented world order.
• As global power structures realign, India’s foreign policy faces the challenge of maintaining strategic autonomy while responding to new security, economic, and diplomatic realities.
• India’s growing “trust deficit” and its diminishing geopolitical relevance in a world where alliances are fluid, regional rivalries intensifying, and multilateralism weakening.

Evolving Global Order: From Multilateralism to Fragmentation

• The global order, which once relied on multilateral frameworks for cooperation, has witnessed a steady erosion since the advent of Donald Trump’s presidency in the United States.
• Erosion of multilateralism: Institutions like the UN, WTO, and WHO have been weakened as major powers increasingly act unilaterally.
• Rise of transactional diplomacy: Nations are prioritizing short-term, interest-based engagements over long-term partnerships.
• India’s predicament: Despite being one of the world’s top five economies, India has struggled to adapt its diplomacy to these changes. Its traditional approach—rooted in the Nehruvian ideals of non-alignment and moral leadership—appears increasingly outdated in a world dominated by pragmatic power politics.

(Image Source: The Hindu)

India’s Declining Geopolitical Relevance

• Despite its economic and demographic strength, India’s diplomatic footprint appears to be shrinking in key regional and global arenas.

Exclusion from the West Asian Peace Process

• The recent Gaza peace settlement, orchestrated by the U.S. with support from Türkiye, Egypt, and Qatar, marked a turning point in the region’s politics.
• India’s absence from this high-profile process—and its minimal representation at subsequent reconciliation events—highlighted a growing perception of India’s irrelevance in West Asian diplomacy.
• Ironically, nations like Türkiye, historically critical of India, played decisive roles, underlining India’s diplomatic isolation in a region where it once enjoyed historical goodwill and influence.

Missed Opportunities in the Neighbourhood

• India’s absence during Nepal’s “Gen Z revolution” reflected a lack of strategic foresight and depth in its neighbourhood policy.
• The turmoil in Nepal, similar to youth movements in Bangladesh and Indonesia, unfolded on India’s doorstep, yet New Delhi remained a bystander.
• This detachment risks eroding India’s traditional influence in South Asia—its immediate strategic periphery.

Challenges in the Neighbourhood

• India’s neighbourhood, once seen as its natural sphere of influence, is undergoing rapid political transformation.

Afghanistan–Pakistan Volatility

• The conflict between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan threatens regional stability.
• India’s satisfaction at Pakistan facing Taliban attacks could prove shortsighted, as prolonged instability in the region directly impacts India’s security.
• With Pakistan’s military leadership consolidating power under Field Marshal Asim Munir, the threat to India’s western frontier remains significant.

Strained Relations with Smaller Neighbours

• Countries like Bangladesh and Nepal, historically close to India, are increasingly perceived as drifting towards China.
• A mix of perceived interference, border issues, and economic dependencies has strained these relationships.
• Even India–Sri Lanka relations, though apparently stable, remain vulnerable to Chinese influence and local political fluctuations.

The China Challenge

• India’s relationship with China remains the most complex and consequential of its external engagements.
• The so-called India–China détente post-Tianjin (2025) appears to be more symbolic than substantive.
• India’s tendency to downplay the 2020 Galwan Valley clash risks sending the wrong signal—one of complacency amid continuing border tensions.
• China’s covert expansion in India’s extended neighbourhood through economic penetration, infrastructure projects, and cyber influence demonstrates its long-term strategy to eclipse India’s regional leadership.
• China’s President Xi Jinping’s assertive diplomacy contrasts sharply with India’s cautious engagement. While China uses trade, technology, and influence operations to reshape Asia’s order, India’s response often lacks agility and coherence.

Strategic Realignments in West Asia

• India’s traditional influence in West Asia is diminishing.
• The new Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement marks a strategic setback for India.
• Countries like Türkiye, Egypt, and Iraq have emerged as regional mediators, while India remains on the sidelines.
• With China’s growing footprint in the Gulf and U.S. retrenchment, India risks being marginalized in a region vital for its energy and diaspora interests.

A Friendless World: Causes of India’s Diplomatic Isolation

• India’s current predicament can be attributed to several structural and strategic shortcomings:
• Overreliance on Strategic Autonomy: While maintaining independence in foreign affairs is vital, excessive rigidity prevents proactive alliance-building.
• Reactive rather than proactive diplomacy: India’s responses often lag behind fast-moving geopolitical developments.
• Limited institutional innovation: India’s foreign policy establishment remains steeped in legacy thinking of the 1940s–50s, lacking adaptability to emerging realities.
• Neglect of regional diplomacy: India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy has faltered in implementation, leading to alienation among smaller neighbours.
• Communication gap and trust deficit: India’s inability to project its intentions clearly in the international arena has widened the perception of unreliability.

The Way Forward: Towards a Flexible and Realist Foreign Policy

• To regain its geopolitical relevance and address the growing trust deficit, India needs a strategic reset built on realism, flexibility, and innovation.

1. Reimagining Regional Diplomacy

• Reinforce South Asian solidarity through genuine economic integration, connectivity, and people-to-people ties.
• Actively engage in regional crisis management, avoiding the image of a passive observer.

2. Strategic Balancing

• Deepen quad-level cooperation (India, U.S., Japan, Australia) to maintain Indo-Pacific stability.
• Simultaneously strengthen ties with ASEAN, Africa, and the Gulf to diversify partnerships beyond the West.

3. Managing China Pragmatically

• Combine deterrence and dialogue to maintain border stability while safeguarding national interests.
• Invest in technological resilience, cybersecurity, and supply-chain diversification to counter China’s economic leverage.

4. Institutional and Ideational Renewal

• Reform India’s foreign policy institutions to reflect modern strategic thinking.
• Enhance training, inter-ministerial coordination, and foresight capabilities within the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

5. Leveraging Soft Power and Civilizational Identity

• India’s distinct civilizational ethos—rooted in pluralism, democracy, and peace—must be projected as a counter-model to authoritarian or theocratic regimes.
• Use cultural diplomacy, diaspora engagement, and development partnerships to rebuild trust globally.

Conclusion

• India stands at a critical juncture in global politics. As traditional alliances weaken and new power blocs emerge, India must adapt to a more unpredictable and fragmented world. The path forward requires strategic agility, institutional reform, and diplomatic innovation.

CARE MCQ

Q3.  Which of the following statements correctly reflects India’s current foreign policy challenges as highlighted in recent analyses?

A. India has maintained consistent influence in West Asia, including the Gaza peace process.
B. India’s neighbourhood policy has shown limitations, evident in its response to Nepal’s political upheavals.
C. India–China relations have fully normalized since the 2020 Galwan clash, with no strategic concerns remaining.
D. India’s foreign policy has successfully mitigated the trust deficit in a fragmented global order.

Answer 3: B

Explanation

• Statement A is incorrect: India was largely absent from the Gaza peace process, indicating a decline in its influence in West Asia.
• Statement B is correct: India’s neighbourhood policy has shown limitations, as reflected in its reactive and inadequate response to Nepal’s political upheavals.
• Statement C is incorrect: India–China relations have not fully normalized since the 2020 Galwan clash; border tensions and strategic concerns persist.
• Statement D is incorrect: India’s foreign policy has not yet mitigated the growing trust deficit in a fragmented and friendless global order.
• Therefore, option B is the correct answer.

UPSC PYQ

Q. “Belt and Road Initiative” is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of : (2016)

(a) African Union

(b) Brazil

(c) European Union

(d) China

Ans: D