Rupee rebounds from historic lows – Currency & RBI Intervention
Table of Contents
Source: Indian Express
Relevance: GS-III: Indian Economy – External sector, currency management
Key Concepts for Prelims and Mains:
For Prelims:
- Exchange rate, forex reserves, current account/trade deficit, Balance of Trade, Balance of Payments
For Mains:
- BoP stress, RBI policy, Key Factors Behind the Rupee’s Fall, what is Supporting the Rupee Now? (RBI’s Role), RBI’s role in forex market.
Why in News?
- On 21 Nov 2025, the rupee hit an all-time low of ₹89.41 per USD, then rebounded to around ₹89.22–89.23 on 24–25 Nov 2025.
- The recovery followed visible RBI intervention in the forex market after a sharp slide driven by:
- Uncertainty over the India–US trade deal,
- Record goods trade deficit (~USD 42 bn in October) and high gold imports,
- Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) selling and nervous sentiment.
Background / Present Status
- The rupee has shifted to weaker bands over time:
- Earlier: ₹81–83 → 83–85 → 86–88;
- After breaching ₹89, market now expects a new range of ~₹88.9–₹90.2.
- The RBI Governor reiterated that:
- RBI does not target a specific level of the rupee;
- It only aims to curb excessive volatility, letting the exchange rate be broadly market-determined.
Exchange Rate
- The price of one currency in terms of another.
E.g. ₹89.2 per US$ = 1 US dollar costs ₹89.2.
- Types:
- Nominal Exchange Rate (NER): Just the market rate – how many rupees for 1 dollar.
- Real Exchange Rate (RER): NER adjusted for inflation differences between countries.
If India’s inflation ↑ faster than US, RER shows loss of competitiveness.
- Effective Exchange Rate (EER): Exchange rate against a basket of currencies.
- NEER: Nominal effective exchange rate (no inflation adjustment).
- REER: Real effective exchange rate (inflation adjusted).
- Effective Exchange Rate (EER): Exchange rate against a basket of currencies.
- Regime in India:
- India follows a “managed float” / “market-determined” exchange rate.
- RBI does not fix a rate, it only intervenes to reduce volatility, not target a specific level (very current-affairs linked).
- Depreciation: ₹ goes from 80/$ → 89/$ → rupee depreciation (costs more rupees to buy $1).
- Appreciation: ₹ goes from 89/$ → 86/$ → rupee appreciation.
- Rupee depreciation → exports more competitive, imports costlier (oil, gold, electronics).
Current Account & Trade Deficit
(A) Current Account
- Part of: Balance of Payments (BoP).
- Includes:
- Trade in Goods (exports – imports of merchandise)
- Trade in Services (IT, tourism, shipping, etc.)
- Income (interest, profit, dividends, wages)
- Current Transfers (remittances from NRIs, grants, gifts, pensions)
- Current Account Deficit (CAD):
When total outflows on current account > inflows.
Essentially: India imports more (goods+services+income) than it earns, financed by borrowing or capital inflows.
- Current Account Surplus:
When inflows > outflows.
(B) Trade Deficit
- Meaning:
Difference between merchandise imports and exports only (goods, not services).
Trade Deficit = Imports (goods) – Exports (goods) when imports > exports.
- Important distinction:
- Trade Deficit ⊂ Current Account (only goods part).
- CAD includes trade in goods + services + income + transfers.
- Why it matters:
- A large trade deficit puts pressure on CAD.
- Higher demand for dollars (to pay for imports) → rupee depreciation pressure.
Key Factors Behind the Rupee’s Fall
India–US trade deal uncertainty
- Markets feared delays / breakdown in the deal amid high US tariffs → negative for exports and capital flows.
Record trade deficit & weak exports
- Goods trade deficit ~USD 42 bn in October: exports fell ~12% due to steep US tariffs and global slowdown, while imports (especially gold) rose to a record ~USD 76 bn.
- Higher deficit → greater demand for dollars, pressuring rupee.
RBI communication & expectations
- Governor’s academic remark that RBI “does not target any rupee level” was interpreted by traders as less willingness to defend 88.80, triggering speculative selling once that level broke.
Change in export realisation timeline
- RBI extended export proceeds realisation from 9 to 15 months → exporters can delay bringing dollars home → near-term dollar supply falls, importers rush to hedge → rupee weakens.
Global factors
- Carry trade unwind in Japanese Yen, higher US and Japan yields, and risk-off sentiment kept Emerging Market currencies including INR under pressure
Difference between BOT and BOP
Balance of Trade (BoT)
- What?
Only goods trade = Exports of goods – Imports of goods - Covers:
- Merchandise exports (cars, oil, mobiles, etc.)
- Merchandise imports
- Type of balance:
- Trade surplus → exports > imports
- Trade deficit → imports > exports
Balance of Payments (BoP)
- What?
Full international account of a country with the rest of the world. - Covers:
- Current Account
- Trade in goods (BOT)
- Trade in services (IT, tourism…)
- Income (interest, profit, dividends)
- Transfers (remittances, grants)
- Capital & Financial Account
- FDI, FPI, ECBs, NRI deposits, etc.
- Errors & Omissions + Change in Forex Reserves
- Current Account
Forex Reserves (Foreign Exchange Reserves)
- Meaning:
Foreign-currency assets held by the RBI, used mainly to manage external sector stability. - Components:
- Foreign Currency Assets (FCA) – in $, €, £, etc. (largest component)
- Gold
- SDRs – Special Drawing Rights (IMF reserve asset)
- Reserve Tranche Position (RTP) in IMF
- Held by:
RBI, but owned by Government of India. - Uses:
- To intervene in forex market (sell/buy $) to curb exchange rate volatility.
- To provide confidence to foreign investors & rating agencies.
- To pay for imports in crisis times (import cover).
- To service external debt.
- Key indicators:
- Import cover (months of imports) – higher = safer.
- Short-term external debt / Forex Reserves – lower = safer.
What is Supporting the Rupee Now? (RBI’s Role)
Forex reserve firepower
- RBI has ~USD 690 bn in reserves, enabling it to sell dollars in spot and forward markets to smooth volatility.
Spot & forward market intervention
- Between Jan–Sep 2025, RBI net-sold ~USD 20.1 bn in spot market.
- Forward dollar sales (onshore + offshore) rose from ~USD 53.4 bn (Aug) to ~USD 59.4 bn (Sep).
- This signals to markets that RBI will not allow a disorderly fall.
Calmer communication & signalling
- Clearer RBI presence in NDF (offshore) and spot markets + repeated messaging about “smooth movement” restored some investor confidence.
Domestic macro resilience (relative)
Despite external stress:
- India still has comfortable reserves,
- Moderate inflation compared to many EMs,
- Reasonable growth outlook, which together prevent panic selling.
Risks / Concerns
- Limited space for RBI intervention
- A large negative forward book (big net forward dollar sales) means RBI cannot indefinitely sell dollars without worrying about future obligations.
- Persistent high trade deficit and tariff uncertainties may re-test the 90 level.
- Import-led inflation risk
- A weaker rupee makes oil, fertilizers, electronics, edible oils costlier → imported inflation → challenges for monetary policy.
- Signalling problem
- If markets sense RBI is “behind the curve”, speculative positions can build quickly near psychological levels (90, 92…).
What Lies Ahead? (Possible Scenarios)
- Base market view: Rupee trades in ₹88.9–₹90.2 band for now.
If India–US trade deal materialises
- Short-term relief rally; rupee may stabilise or appreciate modestly till Q4 FY26 (Jan–Mar 2026) due to:
- Better export outlook,
- Improved investor sentiment.
If trade deal is delayed / fails
- Markets expect USD/INR to break 90 sooner, especially if:
- Trade deficit remains high,
- FPIs keep selling,
- Global dollar stays strong.
Way Forward (Policy & Structural Suggestions)
Calibrated RBI intervention
- Continue “leaning against the wind” – smooth volatility without burning reserves too fast.
Address trade deficit structurally
- Diversify export markets beyond US/EU;
- Promote high-value exports (electronics, services, green tech);
- Rationalise non-essential gold imports.
Clear communication strategy
- RBI and Govt should avoid mixed signals; explain policy moves (like export realisation extension) with macro context.
Strengthen external buffers
- Attract stable FDI, not just hot FPI flows;
- Encourage local currency trade with key partners to reduce USD dependence.
Fiscal–monetary coordination
- Keep fiscal deficit credible to reassure investors about macro stability, aiding currency confidence.
UPSC PYQ
Q. With reference to the Indian economy, consider the following statements: (UPSC 2022)
- An increase in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) indicates the appreciation of rupee.
- An increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) indicates an improvement in trade competitiveness.
- An increasing trend in domestic inflation relative to inflation in other countries is likely to cause an increasing divergence between NEER and REER.
Which of the above statements are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3
Answer: (c) 1 and 3 only
Explanation
Statement 1: NEER ↑ → Rupee Appreciation → CORRECT
- NEER = Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
- It is the weighted average value of the rupee against a basket of currencies (not adjusted for inflation).
- If NEER increases → Rupee is stronger compared to other currencies → appreciation.
✔ Statement 1 is correct.
Statement 2: REER ↑ → Competitiveness worsens → NOT CORRECT
- REER = NEER adjusted for inflation differences.
- If REER increases, it means:
- Indian goods become more expensive than foreign goods,
- Imports become cheaper,
- Exports lose competitiveness.
So REER ↑ does NOT show improvement; it shows decline in competitiveness.
✘ Statement 2 is incorrect.
Statement 3: Higher Indian inflation → NEER vs REER gap widens → CORRECT
- REER accounts for inflation, NEER does not.
- If India’s inflation rises faster than global inflation:
- REER rises faster than NEER,
- Gap between NEER and REER widens (divergence increases).
✔ Statement 3 is correct.
CARE MCQ
Q. Consider the following statements regarding India’s external sector:
- Trade deficit refers to the excess of imports of goods over exports of goods.
- Current Account Deficit (CAD) includes trade in goods, trade in services, income flows, and current transfers.
- A country can have a trade deficit and yet record a current account surplus.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
a) 1 and 2 only
b) 2 and 3 only
c) 1 and 3 only
d) 1, 2 and 3
Answer: d) 1, 2 and 3
- Statement 1: Definition of trade deficit → correct.
- Statement 2: Components of current account → correct.
- Statement 3: Possible if services surplus + remittances are large enough to offset trade deficit → correct (many small economies show this).