Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN scientific body established in 1988 by the WMO and UNEP, assesses the risks of climate change based on scientific evidence. Its Sixth Assessment Report warns that, under a high-emissions scenario, the global mean sea level could rise by around one metre by 2100, driven by global warming and the melting of polar ice. Such a scenario would have serious ecological, economic, and humanitarian consequences for India and countries bordering the Indian Ocean.

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Causes of the Projected Sea Level Rise

• Thermal Expansion: As oceans absorb heat, seawater expands, accounting for ~40–50% of sea-level rise (NOAA).
• Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps: Himalayan glaciers like Gangotri and the Larsen C and B ice shelves in Antarctica are rapidly receding.
• Loss of Ice Shelves: Ice shelf collapse accelerates glacial discharge into oceans.
• Tectonic Activities: Events like the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami altered local sea levels.
• Land Subsidence: Cities like Jakarta are sinking due to over-extraction of groundwater, exacerbating relative sea-level rise.

Impact on India

• Coastal Erosion and Flooding: Cities like Mumbai, Chennai, and Kochi face higher flood risks, especially during cyclones and monsoons.
• Agricultural Loss: Rising salinity in the Sundarbans Delta and Kerala’s Kuttanad region will degrade cultivable land, affecting food security.
• Displacement of Populations: Millions in low-lying coastal states (e.g., West Bengal, Odisha, Kerala) risk becoming “climate refugees.”
• Fisheries and Livelihoods: Disrupted marine ecosystems could collapse local fisheries in Goa, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh.
• Infrastructure Damage: Strategic assets like Jawaharlal Nehru Port and naval bases are vulnerable to submergence and saline corrosion.

Impact on Other Indian Ocean Countries

• Maldives: With an average elevation of 1.5 m, the nation faces existential threats and could become uninhabitable.
• Bangladesh: Over 30 million people could be displaced from densely populated coastal areas, leading to humanitarian crises.
• Sri Lanka: Coastal cities like Galle face erosion, threatening the tourism-dependent economy.
• Indonesia: Maritime trade, coastal infrastructure, and islands like Java are highly vulnerable.
• Thailand: Cities like Phuket face increased risk from tsunamis and storm surges due to sea-level rise.

Conclusion

The IPCC’s forecast signals a grave and imminent challenge for the Indian Ocean region. A sea-level rise of one metre would not only reshape coastlines but also destabilize economies, displace millions, and intensify ecological damage. Mitigation through global emissions reduction, coupled with adaptation measures—such as coastal embankments, mangrove restoration, and climate-resilient urban planning—are essential.

Moreover, regional cooperation under Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), national missions, and lifestyle change campaigns like India’s LiFE movement can together foster a sustainable and resilient future.