Russia – Ukraine War – India’s Role

2.     Reasons of the war

3.     Consequences of the war

4.     India’s role in the war – efforts to minimise tensions.

5.     Failure of peace efforts

6.     Lessons to learn

7.     Way forward

As a rule of thumb,  you may consider the UPSC GS prelims syllabus aspects to cover maximum dimensions like –

1.     Current affairs – ICC issued an arrest warrant against Russian president

2.     Historical – war started in 2014

3.     Geographical – Black sea – Mineral – agricultural potential – oil rich Russia

4.     Economic – supply chain – inflation – Rouble strengthening

5.     Political – Geopolitical dynamics – US & Western hypocrisy

6.     Scientific – New state of the art technology in war – Kamikaze drones – Boomerang drones

7.     Environmental – Rocket fuel release in atmosphere – Global warming

In addition to this, the candidate may also consider the following dimensions –

1.     Moral – Western moral lessons to India and Russia – Hypocritic morality of the west

2.     Social – Women & Child trafficking on rise – family break ups – economic crisis means social crisis

3.     Security – national and social security at a threat.

2.     In 2021 when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged US President Joe Biden to let Ukraine join NATO.

3.     This has led to the war

·       On November 28, Ukraine said Russia is massing nearly 92,000 troops for an offensive at the end of January or early February.

·       But Moscow denied it and accused Ukraine of a military build-up of its own.

·       In December, President Biden warned of severe sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine.

·       Putin has constantly demanded guarantees from the West and Ukraine that it will not join NATO.

·       It was established in 1949 with 12 founding members.

·       It acts as a defence mechanism for all the member countries and the pact to support each other.

·       Former Soviet states Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have already joined NATO.

·       Members also include Hungary Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, all of them were a part of the former Soviet-led Warsaw Pact.

·       Out of the 30 member countries, five border Russia.

·       Ukraine lies in the southern part of Russia and the sea route towards Russia starts from Ukraine.

·       If Ukraine joins hands with USA and Allies, it’s a threat to Russia.

·       NATO has planned to install missile defence systems in eastern Europe in countries like Poland and the Czech Republic to counter Russia’s intercontinental-range missiles.

·       But Ukraine refused to join the agreement.

2.     Russia’s intention to prevent US in the affairs of ex USSR

·       1 in every 6 Ukrainian is an ethnic Russian

·       1 in every 3 Ukrainians speaks Russian as a native language

·       Thus they are historically one.

·       Putin wants to revive the Russian imperialism.  In 2008 Putin invaded Georgia and began Ukrainian invasion in 2014 with the occupation of Crimea.

·       9 out of 10 Russians support their President in rebuilding Russia’s super power image.

·       They want independence from USSR

·       Stiff resistance from Ukraine with support of the west

·       People in Ukraine reject “One People” idea of Russia. They consider Russia as a hostile state.

·       They are ready to take arms against Russia.

·       They Ready to stage a civil war against the Russia and to join EU and NATO

·       The President Volodymyr Zelensky who was democratically elected in 2019 is a vocal critic of Russia. He opposes Russian occupation of Eastern Europe. He is considered as the “Pulse of Ukraine”

·       German Chancellor suspended certification of Nord Stream 2, a major gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.

·       Supplying ultra modern weapons including drones to Ukraine

·       Pledging of financial assistance to Ukraine

a.      $37 billion by EU

b.     $ 70 billion by US

Over one lakh Ukrainian army and over 50,000 civilians were killed.

2.     Russia:

Around 2,00,000 Russian army men were killed and wounded.

a.      Eight million people fled Ukraine

b.     More than one-third of Ukraine’s population was displaced.

2.     Russia:

a.      The Russian military also carried out the forcible transfer of between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens (including some 260,000 children) to Russian territory.

è This is a clear war crime under the Fourth Geneva Convention.

b.     Russians fleeing military conscription

3.     Global:

a.      The displaced people migrated to the countries like France, Poland, Turkey, Azerbaijan, UK and USA.

2.     Russia: Loss of 5,000 armoured vehicles, and 1,700 tanks.

3.     Global: Weapon trade has gone up particularly for the US companies like Lockheed Martin Corp.

a.      Poverty in Ukraine increase from 1.8% to 19.8%  which affect 30% population

b.     Shipping halted from the Black Sea, from where about 90% of Ukraine’s grains are exported.

2.     Russia:

a.      The value Rouble against the Dollar has strengthened.

b.     Economic sanctions on Russia have failed.

c.      Russia started trade in Rouble.

d.     In the long run Russian economy will shrink by 11%

3.     Global economy:

a.     Supply chain affected:

b.     Delays in procurement of nickel, aluminium, and palladium from Russia and Ukraine affected industrial production and the wider supply chain.

c.      Several German car makers have curtailed production due to the shortage of wiring systems supplied from Ukraine.

d.     Global food supply chain affected due to shortage of supply of fertilisers and wheat from the two nations.

e.      50% rise in the Oil prices

f.      Increase in the prices of food items – wheat, sunflower seeds, vegetable oils etc

g.     Un precedented rise in Inflation across the world.

b.     Emissions from Russia’s invasion to be roughly around 56 million tonnes of CO2

c.      Trenches dug by Russian army in the Chernobyl  may dug the Radio active material

d.     Explosive material, rocket fuel and shrapnel and wire … All these little tiny pieces of pollution have a huge impact on nature.

·       Russia and Ukraine are among the top 10 countries for total global departures and a key source of revenue for tourism-reliant countries in the Europe, East Asia and the Pacific, Middle East, North Africa and South Asia.

b.     Rise in the women trafficking from Ukraine. Poland started an all women car service to safely transport the women.

c.      Childhood poverty lasts for life time

b.     It has rattled NATO, the European Union and the U.N., forcing countries to take sides in ways that have led to escalating tensions and diplomatic shifts.

c.      Turkey, despite being a NATO member, has increased trade with Russia since the start of the war.

d.     Relations between Russia and China further improved

·       Many countries, including the US and Ukraine, have publicly appealed to Delhi to take a clear stand and “do the right thing”.

·       But India has resisted the pressure and continued with its strategy of not criticising Russia directly. It has abstained from similar resolutions both at the UNGA, Human Rights Council and at the UNSC in the past.

a.      energy — discounted fuel coming in from Russia is a relief for India

b.     Defence supplies — Russia has fulfilled over 46% of India’s defence needs in the last five years.

2.     Russia is deepening its ties with China, so it must not leave Russia.

3.     USA is not a dependable partner for India.

b.     It called for immediate resolution of the war between the two countries.

c.      India’s stance is a focus on international law, uphold UN charter, respect territorial integrity and respect sovereignty of states.

d.     Open condemning of Russia by India will threaten India’s security.

2.     Strategic interests

a.      60% of India’s defence requirements met by Russia

b.     Russia accounts for $8.1 billion trade with India

1.     Russia used veto in favour of India –

a.      1957: Resolution on sending UN troops to Kashmir

b.     1961: India’s with drawl from Goa

c.      1962: Resolution on India’s sovereignty against Pakistan

2.     Russia supported India in 1971 war

3.     Russia supported India’s nuclear tests when the west condemned.

4.     Hostile armed neighbours like Pakistan and China are getting closer to Russia

5.     Russia was the key mediator in the China – India dispute in Galwan in 2020. Russian defence supplies helped to counter the PLA’s attack.

è There was no resolution, no condemnation,  no sanctions, no assistance from the west against the Chinese aggression.

2.     Insisted dialogue between the two warring nations.

3.     India pressurised Russia against using the nuclear weapons

2.     Getting the oil at discounted prices from Russia

3.     India’s civil aviation sector hits an all time high

4.     Up 65,000 IT jobs increases

5.     Maintaining the diplomatic neutrality between USA and Russia

6.     India has learned the lesson that it has to be more self reliant especially in the defence and energy sector to maintain strategic autonomy.