Global Terrorism Index 2026: Emerging Global Threats Explained

Why in News?

The 13th edition of the Global Terrorism Index 2026 reported that global terrorism declined in 2025, with terrorism-related deaths falling by 28% and terrorist incidents declining by 22%. However, the report cautions that terrorism is becoming more concentrated, decentralised, adaptive and digitally driven, creating new challenges for global and regional security.

Recent Global Terrorism Trend

Recent Global Terrorism Trend (2025)

• Global terrorism fatalities declined to about 5,582 deaths in 2025.
• Around 2,944 terrorist incidents were recorded worldwide.
• 81 countries showed measurable improvement in their domestic security situation.
• Overall, global data indicates a positive trend with fewer terrorist attacks and deaths.

However, the Threat Still Remains

• The decline does not mean terrorism has been defeated.
• Terrorist groups are becoming more adaptive, changing their methods and strategies.
• Terrorism is becoming geographically concentrated, with violence focused in fragile conflict zones.
• As a result, the world is becoming unevenly unsafe:
  • Safer in many stable countries.
  • More dangerous in conflict-affected and politically unstable regi

What is Terrorism?

There is no universally accepted legal definition of terrorism because countries differ politically and strategically on how to define it.

However, most definitions contain three common elements:

• Use or threat of violence
• Targeting civilians or non-combatants to create fear
• Political, ideological or religious objective

The United Nations broadly describes terrorism as criminal acts intended to cause death or serious injury, spread terror among the public, or compel governments or international organisations to act.

In India, a terrorist act is defined under Section 15 of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967. The Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023 also defines acts threatening India’s sovereignty, unity, integrity, security or economic stability as terrorist acts.

Why Declining Numbers Do Not Mean a Safer World

The fall in total incidents hides deeper structural risks.

Complacency Trap

Nearly 70% of global terrorism-related deaths are concentrated in Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounts for over half of global terrorism fatalities. This concentration may create a false sense of security in stable regions.

Conflict-Governance Nexus

Around 99% of terrorism-related deaths occur in countries affected by armed conflict or political instability. Terrorism thrives where governance is weak, institutions collapse and extremist groups fill the security vacuum.

Decentralised Threats

Terror groups increasingly rely on lone-wolf attacks, small autonomous cells and online radicalisation. In the West, 93% of fatal terrorist attacks over the past five years were reportedly carried out by lone actors.

Digital Radicalisation

Social media, encrypted platforms and algorithm-driven online spaces have become force multipliers for extremist recruitment and self-radicalisation.

Emerging Trends in Global Terrorism

1. Geographical Concentration

Terrorism is now concentrated in fragile states and conflict zones rather than evenly spread across the world.

2. Border-Centric Terrorism

More than 60% of terrorist attacks occur within 100 km of international borders. Such zones enable cross-border infiltration, arms trafficking, terror financing and recruitment.

3. Adaptive Terror Networks

Modern terror groups fragment into smaller units, exploit local grievances and adapt quickly to counter-terrorism pressure.

4. Dominance of Major Networks

The global terrorist landscape is increasingly shaped by a few major organisations such as Islamic State, JNIM, TTP, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Al-Shabaab.

5. Geopolitical Conflicts as Catalysts

Conflicts in West Asia and continuing regional tensions can create conditions for extremist resurgence and new radical groups.

Terrorism and India’s Internal Security

India faces a complex terrorism threat because of geography, cross-border hostility, cyber vulnerabilities and internal fault lines.

Cross-Border Terrorism and Proxy Warfare

Pakistan-sponsored cross-border terrorism remains India’s foremost security challenge. Groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed have been linked to major attacks including the 2001 Parliament attack, 2016 Uri attack and 2025 Pahalgam attack.

Urban Terrorism

Indian cities remain vulnerable to mass-casualty attacks, lone-actor violence, improvised explosives and attacks on crowded public spaces.

Internal Insurgencies

Security challenges continue in Jammu & Kashmir, the Northeast and Left-Wing Extremism-affected regions, where extremist groups exploit local grievances.

Cyber Terrorism

Terrorist organisations use cyberspace for propaganda, recruitment, financing and operational planning. Cryptocurrencies and the dark web have made tracking terror financing more difficult.

Terror Financing and Organised Crime

Drug trafficking, counterfeit currency, hawala networks and arms smuggling continue to sustain terrorist ecosystems.

Maritime Security Threats

India’s 7,500-km coastline remains vulnerable to infiltration, arms smuggling and maritime terrorism, requiring stronger coastal surveillance.

India’s Counter-Terrorism Doctrine

India’s counter-terrorism approach is based on zero tolerance, intelligence-led prevention and calibrated response.

Zero-Tolerance Policy

India rejects any distinction between terrorists and their sponsors and maintains that no cause can justify terrorism.

Proactive and Pre-emptive Response

India’s doctrine now emphasises preventive intelligence, precision operations and calibrated retaliation.

PRAHAAR Framework

The PRAHAAR Framework marks a shift from reactive containment to intelligence-led, pre-emptive deterrence. It also decouples terrorism from religion, ethnicity or civilisation and treats terrorism as a security threat rather than a community identity issue.

Four Pillars of India’s Counter-Terror Policy

Pillar 1: Legislative Empowerment

India has strengthened its legal framework to investigate, prosecute and punish terrorism.

Important reforms include:

• UAPA Amendment Act, 2019: enabled designation of individuals as terrorists and expanded investigative powers.
• NIA Amendment Act, 2019: expanded NIA’s jurisdiction, including offences outside India affecting Indian interests.
• PMLA Amendments: strengthened action against terror financing through hawala, cryptocurrencies and illicit assets.
• BNS, 2023: defined terrorism and organised crime, with strict punishments for terrorist acts, recruitment, training, harbouring and financing.
• Arms Amendment Act, 2019: strengthened penalties for illegal arms trafficking and improved firearm traceability.

Pillar 2: Institutional Strengthening

India has upgraded counter-terror institutions and intelligence systems.

Key institutional mechanisms include:

• National Investigation Agency: India’s premier counter-terror investigation agency, strengthened through special courts, regional offices and better funding.
• 53 Special NIA Courts: for faster prosecution of terror-related cases.
• National Terror Database Fusion and Analysis Centre: for improved terror-data analysis.
• Multi-Agency Centre: apex intelligence-sharing platform connecting 28 agencies.
• Cyber Multi-Agency Centre: launched to improve cyber threat monitoring.
• NATGRID: integrates immigration, banking, telecom and travel databases.
• CCTNS 2.0: AI-enabled police data-sharing platform.
• Police Modernisation: over ₹6,300 crore allocated during 2021–2026 for weapons, surveillance, forensic infrastructure and secure communication.

Pillar 3: Operations Against Cross-Border Terrorism

India has adopted calibrated operational responses against cross-border terror infrastructure.

Important examples include:

• Surgical Strikes, 2016
• Balakot Air Strike, 2019
• Operation Sindoor, 2025

These actions indicate India’s shift towards swift, precise and proportionate retaliation against cross-border terrorism.

Pillar 4: Multilateral and Diplomatic Counter-Terror Architecture

India has expanded international cooperation against terrorism.

Key measures include:

• FATF membership since 2010 to counter terror financing.
• Hosting the No Money for Terror Conference, 2022.
• Proposal of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism at the UN in 1996.
• Use of UNSC mechanisms for global terrorist designation.
• Joint Working Groups on Counter-Terrorism with 27 countries and 5 multilateral forums.
• BHARATPOL, 2025, connecting Indian law enforcement agencies with INTERPOL.
• Delhi Declaration, 2022, focusing on misuse of drones, digital technologies, social media and online terror financing.

Outcomes of Counter-Terrorism Reforms

India’s counter-terror reforms have produced visible outcomes in security management.

• Terrorist-initiated incidents in Jammu & Kashmir declined from 228 in 2018 to 12 in 2025.
• Civilian and security force casualties declined sharply.
• Stone-pelting has remained near zero since 2022.
• Strikes and shutdowns have largely disappeared, improving public life and governance.
• Improved security has supported infrastructure, tourism, employment and investment in Jammu & Kashmir.
• Enhanced intelligence and technology-driven surveillance have helped foil terror plots before execution.
• Since the 2013 Hyderabad blasts, India has witnessed very few major urban terrorist attacks.

Policy Measures Needed

1. Shift from Reaction to Prevention

Counter-terrorism must focus on early warning, intelligence fusion, digital monitoring and disruption of terror financing before attacks occur.

2. Strengthen Borderland Governance

Since many attacks occur near borders, frontier regions need better roads, policing, surveillance, administrative presence and local development.

3. Counter Digital Radicalisation

Social media platforms, encrypted networks, dark web channels and AI-driven propaganda must be monitored through lawful and rights-based cyber capabilities.

4. Disrupt Terror Financing

India must strengthen action against hawala, counterfeit currency, narcotics, arms smuggling, cryptocurrencies and organised crime networks.

5. Improve Maritime and Coastal Security

Coastal radar chains, port security, fisher-community intelligence and maritime domain awareness must be upgraded.

6. Deepen International Cooperation

Terrorism is transnational. Intelligence sharing, extradition, joint investigations and FATF-based financial monitoring must be strengthened.

Conclusion

The decline in global terrorism numbers should not lead to complacency. Terrorism is becoming more concentrated, decentralised, digital and border-centric. For India, the threat remains serious because of cross-border terrorism, cyber radicalisation, organised crime linkages and maritime vulnerabilities. India’s shift towards zero tolerance, legal strengthening, institutional coordination, precision response and global cooperation has improved internal security. However, long-term success will depend on dismantling the structural drivers of terrorism — conflict, weak governance, porous borders, online radicalisation and terror financing.