Climate Change Dairy Crisis: Heat Stress Cuts India’s Milk

Climate Change Dairy Crisis affecting milk production in India's Gangetic Plains

Table of Contents

Relevance: UPSC GS Paper III: Agriculture, Livestock Economy, Climate Change, Food Security

Important Keywords for Prelims and Mains

For Prelims:

  • Heat stress, Temperature-Humidity Index, Potential Evapotranspiration, Buffaloes, Indigenous cattle, Sahiwal, Hariana, Scientific Reports

For Mains:

  • Climate-smart dairy, livestock resilience, smallholder farmers, fodder security, thermal stress, indigenous breed conservation, climate adaptation

Why in News?

A new study published in Scientific Reports has found that climate change is sharply affecting milk production in India, especially in the high milk-producing tract of Haryana in the trans-Gangetic plains.The study shows that high temperature, humidity, heatwaves and evapotranspiration are reducing milk yield, particularly among buffaloes and cross-bred cattle. This is a major concern because India is the world’s largest milk producer, and dairy supports millions of rural households.

India’s Dairy Sector and Climate Risk

  • India’s dairy sector is central to rural livelihoods, nutrition and the agricultural economy.
  • A large share of milk production comes from smallholder farmers who keep cattle or buffaloes as a source of regular income. Any climate-induced decline in milk yield therefore affects not only dairy companies and consumers, but also household-level income and nutrition.
  • The crisis is especially serious in northwestern India, where Haryana forms one of India’s important milk-producing belts. Rising temperatures and longer summers are now emerging as direct threats to dairy productivity.

Key Findings of the Study

Researchers analysed livestock and climate data from 2004 to 2019 across 1,148 villages in Haryana.

The study covered:

  • 4.66 million cross-bred cattle
  • 2.86 million indigenous cattle
  • 35.56 million buffaloes

It examined the effect of climatic variables such as:

  • Yearly minimum, maximum and mean temperature
  • Heavy rainfall
  • Temperature-Humidity Index
  • Heatwaves
  • Potential evapotranspiration
  • Solar radiation
  • Ambient temperature
  • Vapour pressure
  • The findings show that temperatures above 38°C, combined with humidity above 70%, significantly reduce milk production, especially during July and August when summer heat and monsoon humidity overlap.
  • Winter temperatures had a negligible impact, indicating that heat stress, not cold stress, is the major climatic threat to dairy productivity in the region.

How Heat Stress Reduces Milk Yield

  • Lactating animals are highly vulnerable to heat stress.
  • When temperatures rise, animals divert energy away from milk production to maintain body temperature. This leads to a decline in feed intake, lower productivity and physiological stress.

Heat stress triggers responses such as:

  • Panting
  • Sweating
  • Reduced movement
  • Reduced appetite
  • Higher cortisol levels
  • Impaired milk ejection
  • In severe cases, heat stress may also increase livestock mortality.
  • Experts estimate that during intense summer months, heat stress can reduce milk yield by 20–30% in lactating animals.

Why Buffaloes are More Vulnerable

  • Buffaloes are especially sensitive to heat.
  • Their darker body colour absorbs more solar radiation. They also have fewer sweat glands compared to cattle, making it harder for them to cool their bodies naturally.
  • The study found that a unit increase in potential evapotranspiration can reduce milk yield by around 1.4 litres per buffalo per day.
  • This is important because buffaloes contribute significantly to India’s milk production. A climate-induced decline in buffalo productivity can therefore have a major impact on dairy output and rural income.

Cross-Bred Cattle and Indigenous Cattle

  • Cross-bred cattle also showed a significant decline in productivity during heatwaves.
  • However, indigenous cattle breeds such as Sahiwal and Hariana appeared more resilient.

Their heat tolerance is linked to traits such as:

  • Loose skin
  • Better sweating ability
  • Lower metabolic heat production
  • Stronger adaptation to local climate
  • Better immunity against local parasites and pathogens
  • This suggests that indigenous breeds are valuable reservoirs of climate-resilient traits.

Impact on Fodder, Water and Animal Health

  • Climate change affects dairy production not only through direct heat stress on animals, but also through the wider dairy ecosystem.

Fodder stress:

  • Rising surface temperatures affect the quantity, quality and seasonal availability of fodder and feed.

Water scarcity:

  • Longer and hotter summers increase the demand for water while reducing availability.

Disease pressure:

  • Higher temperatures can increase pest and disease attacks and weaken animal immunity.

Feed cost:

  • Reduced fodder availability can raise input costs for farmers.
  • Thus, the dairy crisis is not limited to animal physiology. It is linked to the overall climate sensitivity of the rural production system.

Indigenous Dairy Breeds of Cattle

S. No.BreedOther NamesOrigin / Home TractColour / Body FeaturesMilk Yield
1GirBhadawari, Desan, Gujarati, Kathiawari, Sorthi, SuratiGir forests of South Kathiawar, Gujarat; also found in Maharashtra and RajasthanWhite with dark red or chocolate-brown patches; sometimes black or pure red1200–1800 kg per lactation
2Red SindhiRed Karachi, Sindhi, MahiKarachi and Hyderabad regions of undivided India, now in PakistanRed colour, varying from dark red to light red; sometimes white strips1250–1800 kg per lactation
3SahiwalLola, Lambi Bar, Montgomery, Multani, TeliMontgomery region of undivided India, now in PakistanReddish dun or pale red; sometimes white patches; loose skin1400–2500 kg per lactation

 Exotic dairy breeds of cattle

S. No.BreedOriginColour / Body FeaturesMilk YieldImportant Points
1JerseyJersey Island, United KingdomReddish fawn colour; dished forehead; compact and angular bodyAround 4500 kg per lactationSmallest dairy-type cattle; well acclimatised in India; used in cross-breeding; milk has about 4.5% fat
2Holstein FriesianNorthern Netherlands, especially FrieslandLarge body; rugged build; large udder; black and white markings6000–7000 kg per lactationLargest dairy breed; easily identified by black and white colour pattern
3Brown SwissMountainous region of SwitzerlandRugged body; good milk-producing breedAround 5000 kg per lactationKaran Swiss is developed by crossing Brown Swiss with Sahiwal at NDRI, Karnal
4Red DaneDenmarkRed, reddish brown or dark brown; heavy breed3000–4000 kg per lactationImportant exotic dairy breed from Denmark
5AyrshireAyrshire, ScotlandActive animal; considered one of the most beautiful dairy breedsMilk fat about 4%Also known as Dunlop cattle or Cunningham cattle; active but difficult to manage
6GuernseyGuernsey Island near FranceCherry red to brown; mahogany and white colour also seenAround 6000 kg per lactationMilk has golden colour due to high beta-carotene; known for efficient milk production, easy calving and longevity

Economic and Livelihood Implications

  • The study estimates that heat-related stressors already cause India to lose around 3.2 million tonnes of milk, worth about ₹2,661 crore.
  • This loss could rise to 15 million tonnes by the 2050s if warming continues without effective adaptation.

The implications are serious:

For farmers:

  • Small dairy farmers may face lower income, higher feed costs and greater livestock-health expenses.

For consumers:

  • Reduced production can affect supply stability and milk prices.

For nutrition:

  • Milk is a key source of protein and micronutrients, especially for children and vulnerable households.

For the national economy:

  • Dairy is one of India’s largest agricultural sectors, and climate shocks can weaken rural demand and food security.
  • Experts warn that production losses may put the livelihoods and nutrition of millions at risk, especially the 80 million smallholder dairy farmers who contribute the majority of India’s milk.

Climate-Smart Adaptation Measures

Farmers in Haryana are already using several practical measures to reduce heat stress.

These include:

  • Providing wallowing ponds for buffaloes
  • Keeping livestock in shaded sheds
  • Using sprinklers, foggers and mist systems
  • Practising agroforestry
  • Improving feeding management
  • Altering the microclimate around animal shelters

Such measures can reduce the negative effects of extreme heat, but scaling them for millions of small farmers remains difficult.

Promotion of Indigenous Cow Breeds and A2 Milk Certification

1. Rashtriya Gokul Mission

Rashtriya Gokul Mission is implemented by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying.

Main Objectives

  • Conservation and development of indigenous bovine breeds
  • Genetic upgradation of cattle and buffaloes
  • Increase in milk production and productivity
  • Making dairy farming more remunerative for farmers
  • Promotion of high-yielding indigenous animals

Indigenous Breeds Covered

Important indigenous cattle breeds include:

  • Gir ,Sahiwal ,Rathi ,Tharparkar ,Hariana ,Kankrej ,Ongole ,Deoni ,Nagauri ,Red Sindhi

All indigenous bovine breeds registered by the National Bureau of Animal Genetic Resources are covered under the mission.

2. Major Interventions under Rashtriya Gokul Mission

InterventionKey Points
Nationwide Artificial Insemination ProgrammeProvides quality Artificial Insemination services at farmers’ doorstep using semen of high genetic merit bulls.
Sex Sorted SemenHelps produce female calves with up to 90% accuracy. It increases milk production and reduces stray cattle population.
Accelerated Breed Improvement ProgrammePromotes sex sorted semen of indigenous breeds. Farmers get incentive up to 50% of cost on assured pregnancy.
Indigenous Sex Sorted Semen TechnologyReduced cost of sex sorted semen from ₹800 to ₹250 per dose.
MAITRIsMulti-Purpose Artificial Insemination Technicians in Rural India provide doorstep breeding services.
IVF TechnologyUsed for conservation and improvement of indigenous breeds such as Gir and Kankrej.
Indigenous IVF Culture MediaReduced embryo production cost from ₹5000 to ₹2000 per embryo.
Progeny Testing and Pedigree SelectionUsed to produce High Genetic Merit bulls for breeding programmes.
Strengthening Semen StationsImproves quality and quantity of semen production, including indigenous breed semen.
Awareness ActivitiesFertility camps, milk yield competitions, calf rallies, farmer training, seminars and workshops are organised.

Milk Production Growth

India

Indicator2014-152024-25Growth
Milk production146.3 MMT247.87 MMT69.41%
Per capita availability319 g/day485 g/day52.03%
Productivity of cattle & buffaloes36.63%

Significance for India

Food security:

  • Milk is a daily food item and an important source of nutrition.

Livelihood security:

  • Dairy provides regular income to small and marginal farmers.

Climate adaptation:

  • The findings show that agriculture policy must include livestock-specific climate strategies.

Indigenous breed conservation:

  • Heat-tolerant breeds such as Sahiwal and Hariana are important for future dairy resilience.

Regional planning:

  • Climate indicators such as Temperature-Humidity Index and evapotranspiration can help create early warning systems.

Gender dimension:

  • Women play a major role in dairy care; reduced productivity affects women’s income and workload.

Key Challenges

Limited farmer resources:

  • Many smallholders cannot afford cooling systems, improved sheds or better feed.

Weak early warning systems:

  • Heat alerts are often not linked to livestock-management advice.

Fodder insecurity:

  • Climate change is reducing reliable access to quality fodder.

Breed policy imbalance:

  • Excessive dependence on high-yielding cross-breeds may increase climate vulnerability.

Water stress:

  • Cooling animals and maintaining fodder require water, which is increasingly scarce.

Fragmented support:

  • India lacks a fully coordinated national climate-smart dairy strategy.

Awareness gaps:

  • Farmers may know some practices but lack technical or financial support to implement them widely.

Way Forward

  • Integrate Temperature-Humidity Index and Potential Evapotranspiration into regional dairy early warning systems.
  • Promote low-cost cooling methods such as shade, ventilation, sprinklers and wallowing ponds.
  • Support climate-resilient fodder cultivation and fodder banks.
  • Expand veterinary extension services for heat-stress management.
  • Prioritise indigenous and thermo-tolerant breeds in breeding programmes.
  • Conserve breeds such as Sahiwal and Hariana as reservoirs of climate-resilient traits.

Conclusion

Climate change is emerging as a serious threat to India’s dairy economy.The decline in milk production in the Gangetic plains shows that heat stress is no longer a future risk but a present livelihood challenge. Buffaloes and cross-bred cattle are especially vulnerable, while indigenous breeds offer important lessons in climate resilience.India’s dairy future will depend on a shift from productivity-only planning to resilience-oriented livestock management. Protecting smallholder farmers, conserving indigenous breeds and building climate-smart dairy systems are essential for sustaining milk production in a warming world.

UPSC PYQ

Q. Consider the following statements about the Rashtriya Gokul Mission:

  1. It is important for the upliftment of rural poor as majority of low producing indigenous animals are with small and marginal farmers and landless labourers.
  2. It was initiated to promote indigenous cattle and buffalo rearing and conservation in a scientific and holistic manner.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A. I only

B. II only

C. Both I and II

D. Neither I nor II

Answer: C

Explanation

Statement I is correct:
Rashtriya Gokul Mission helps small and marginal farmers by improving the productivity of indigenous bovine breeds. Since many low-yielding indigenous animals are owned by rural poor farmers and landless labourers, the scheme supports rural income and dairy-based livelihoods.

Statement II is correct:
The mission was launched to promote the development and conservation of indigenous cattle and buffalo breeds in a scientific and holistic manner.

Additional Information

Rashtriya Gokul Mission was launched in 2014 by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying.

Key Objectives

  • Conservation of indigenous bovine breeds
  • Genetic improvement of cattle and buffaloes
  • Promotion of high-yielding indigenous animals
  • Increase in milk production and productivity
  • Support to farmers through Artificial Insemination, IVF, sex-sorted semen and breed improvement programmes

CARE MCQ

Q. Consider the following cattle breeds:

  1. Holstein Friesian
  2. Red Dane
  3. Guernsey
  4. Gir
  5. Sahiwal

How many of the above are exotic dairy breeds of cattle?

A. Only two

B. Only three

C. Only four

D. All five

Answer: B

Explanation

  1. Holstein Friesian — Exotic: It originated in Northern Netherlands, especially Friesland.
  2. Red Dane — Exotic: It originated in Denmark.
  3. Guernsey — Exotic: It originated from Guernsey Island near France.
  4. Gir — Indigenous: It is an Indian dairy breed from Gujarat.
  5. Sahiwal — Indigenous: It is an indigenous dairy breed from the Montgomery region of undivided India.

FAQs

1. Why is milk production declining in the Gangetic plains?

Rising temperature, humidity, heatwaves and evapotranspiration are causing heat stress in dairy animals.

2. Which region was highlighted in the study?

The study focused on Haryana, a high milk-producing tract in the trans-Gangetic plains.

3. Which animals are most affected?

Buffaloes and cross-bred cattle are more affected than indigenous cattle.

4. Why are buffaloes vulnerable to heat?

They absorb more solar radiation and have fewer sweat glands, reducing their ability to cool down.

5. What is heat stress?

Heat stress occurs when animals cannot regulate body temperature effectively under high temperature and humidity.

6. How does heat stress reduce milk yield?

Animals divert energy from milk production to cooling the body, and they also eat less.

7. What is Temperature-Humidity Index?

It is an index that combines temperature and humidity to estimate heat stress.

8. What is evapotranspiration?

It is the combined loss of water from soil and plants through evaporation and transpiration.

9. Which indigenous breeds are more heat tolerant?

Breeds such as Sahiwal and Hariana show better adaptation to heat.

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